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Nordic Power Market Outlook

2020 - 2045

Fall 2019, 33rd edition: Scenario based analysis with updated price prognosis for all Nordic price areas and neighbouring countries.

Report Content

Short, Medium and Long-term Insight

The long term report offers 4 scenarios with an updated Base case scenario, a climate change scenario and a high and low scenario.

Price Forecasts

Nordic System price and all Nordic area prices up until 2045, as well as price projections for Germany, France, UK, The Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia and Lithuania on annual resolution. 

Buyer Presentation

The Nordic Power Market Outlook 2020-2045 will be presented for all buyers at our upcoming client seminar Nena Energy Session in Oslo November 6 2019.

Key Points for the Fall 2019 edition

  • Brexit and German coal power exit; possible impacts on Nordic power prices 
  • Climate change scenario: Based on the report “Climate in Norway 2100” we analyse how inflow will develop in the Nordic region in two different scenarios.
  • Record volumes of wind power being commissioned the coming year. Investments will continue regardless of subsidy systems.
  • The Nordic renewable production potential is vast, with a substantial part available at a low cost. 
  • Offshore wind power is gaining political attention and it seems likely that support systems will lead to increased investment in offshore wind over the next decade.

 Nordic Power Long term reports

Nordic Power Market Outlook 2020 - 2045

Details and Specifications

The long term report offers 4 scenarios with an updated Base case scenario, a climate change scenario and a high and low scenario. Included are price forecasts for the Nordic System price and all Nordic area prices up until 2045, as well as price projections for Germany, France, UK, The Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia and Lithuania on annual resolution. The Nordic Power Outlook Fall 2019 further includes a detailed annual supply and demand balance until 2045.

  • Record volumes of wind power being commissioned the coming year. Investments will continue regardless of subsidy systems, but the NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) effect likely to significantly slow down the development in NorwayComprehensive database with a detailed overview of more than 100 TWh potential onshore wind projects pending or with approval.
  • The Nordic renewable production potential is vast, with a substantial part available at a low cost. The Long Run Marginal Cost (LRMC) of onshore wind power has a decisive impact on future Nordic power prices, despite the NIMBY effect.
  • Offshore wind power is gaining political attention and it seems likely that support systems will lead to increased investment in offshore wind over the next decade, with downward pressure on electricity prices as a result.
  • Decarbonisation requires electrification. We discuss electricity consumption development under the premise of electrification.
  • Huge profits await those who commercializes competitive energy storage. Beyond 2030 a large scale deployment of energy storage will allow electricity prices all over Europe to converge against the LRMC of wind and solar power. Our main focus is batteries for short-term energy storage and power-to-gas for medium-term energy storage.
  • Are EUA prices high enough to accelerate decarbonisation through the transition to power systems based on renewable production? Decreasing costs for energy storage will allow power prices all over Europe to essentially become a function of the LRMC of wind- and solar power.
  • Brexit and German coal power exit; possible impacts on Nordic power prices.
  • Climate change scenario: Based on the report “Climate in Norway 2100” we analyse how inflow will develop in the Nordic region in two different scenarios; one scenario with rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions globally and one scenario with small emissions changes until 2050 and then emission cuts.
  • High scenario: Higher natural gas and EUA prices combined with limited wind power development in Norway, stronger consumption growth and new interconnectors to Germany and the UK.
  • Low scenario (Nena scenario): Lower natural gas and Continental power prices and strong increase in Nordic wind power investments, using Nena forecasts for natural gas, coal and EUA prices.

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

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