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Nordic Renewables Outlook

2020 - 2045

Fall 2019, 20th edition: The new Nordic Renewable Outlook includes renewable investments potentials and expected renewable development in Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark

Report Content

Overview of Nordic Renewable Investments from 2019 - 2030

We provide an overview of all projects under development and assess costs and potential for offshore wind power until 2045 for the Nordic region.

Expected Electricity Certificate Price

Developed under various scenarios, we provide elcertificate price sensitivities to changes in interest rates, CAPEX AND OPEX cost and load hours (FLH).

Buyer Presentation

The new Nordic Rnewables Outlook 2020-2045 will be presented for all buyers at our upcoming client seminar Nena Energy Session in Oslo November 6 2019.

Key Points for the Fall 2019 edition

  • Comprehensive database with detailed overview of more than 100 TWh potential onshore wind projects pending or with approval.
  • Overview of large projects under construction as well as the expected onshore wind, large hydro, bio and wind power projects to take investment decision.
  • Merit order overview of Nordic renewable investments from 2019 to 2030.
  • Overview of PPAs associated with Nordic renewable investments.
  • Expected electricity certificate price development under various scenarios: weather risk, technological, financial and political risk.
  • Complete monthly and annual el certificate balance up to 2045 for all technologies, with according phase-out and accumulate balance development.

 Nordic Renewables Long term reports3

 

 

Nordic Renewables Outlook 2020 - 2045

Details and Specifications

The new Nordic Renewable Outlook includes renewable investments potentials and expected renewable development in Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark, in addition to the usual analysis of the Electricity Certificates market. The report discusses relevant energy storage technologies to enable the extensive development of renewable energy and also various framework conditions in the Nordic region addressing the long-term targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the EU.

  • The elcertificate goal of 46.4 TWh new renewable production from 2012 to 2030 has already been reached by a wide margin. Without the low but still existing probability of a shortage of elcertificates prior to the March-20 compliance, the elcertificate price would have been close to zero.
  • We find the probability for an elcertificate shortage in the period before the March-20 compliance to be low. We assess its latest probability and potential price effect next few years through our weather scenario analysis.
  • The Norwegian regulator NVE has adopted amendments to the regulations on control of network operations. We discuss how this can impact the cost of, and investments in, wind power in Norway.
  • We provide elcertificate price sensitivities to changes in interest rates, CAPEX and OPEX cost and load hours (FLH).
  • We provide an overview of all projects under development in Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark.
  • We assess the onshore wind power potential in Norway, Sweden and Finland? We provide an overview of more than 100 TWh with specific valuation details on 400 onshore wind power projects under development.
  • Offshore wind power is gaining political attention and it seems likely that support systems will lead to increased investment in offshore wind over the next decade. We assess costs and potential for offshore wind power until 2045 for the Nordic region.

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

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