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Fall 2020 Nordic Power Market Outlook

2021 - 2045

Fall 2020, 35th edition: Scenario-based analysis with updated price prognosis for all Nordic price areas and neighbouring countries.

Contact us for more information and schedule a call with StormGeo's Nena Analysis representative. The report is available from October 21, 2020

 

 

Long-term Insight

The long term report offers 4 scenarios with an updated base case scenario, a climate change scenario and a high and low scenario.

Price Forecasts

Price forecasts for the Nordic and German System and all Nordic area prices up until 2045, plus price projections for Germany, France, UK, The Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia and Lithuania on annual resolution.

Annual Supply and Demand Balance

The Nordic Power Outlook also includes a detailed annual supply and demand balance for all price areas until 2045.

Presented for all buyers at the Nena Energy Session Webinar November 4

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

Nordics Fall 2020 v3

Key discussions for the Fall 2020 edition

  • What parts of the Nordic system will we there be significant consumption growth and how will energy efficiency improvements limit the growth?
  • COVID-19 – How has the pandemic affected the Nordic power market and will it have any long term impacts?
  • How will increasing investments in solar power in Europe affect the long-term power prices in the Nordic system?
  • Replacing flexible fossil power production with intermittent renewable power introduces challenges to balancing of the system.
  • How will an emerging hydrogen market affect the Nordic power market?
  • Will renewables and emissions goals still be reached?
  • Will new European wide interconnector capacities send more signals northbound and price structure and level change?
  • The coal to gas switch, plus politically determined thermal decommissioning plans and green subsidy schemes are perhaps enough to reach the current European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) emissions goals.
Contact us for more information and schedule a call with StormGeo's Nena Analysis representative. The report is available from October 21, 2020

Details and Specifications

  • We’re witnessing a substantial electricity consumption growth in the Nordic region. Electrification of traditional fossil-based industries and sectors, together with extensive growth in new el intensive industries will give an increased demand for electricity. In what part of the Nordic system will we there be significant consumption growth and how will energy efficiency improvements limit the growth? We discuss electricity consumption development in the Nordics and provide detailed balances for all price areas.
  • COVID-19 – How has the pandemic affected the Nordic power market and will it have any long term impacts?
  • We discuss the continuous investment signal for new renewable power throughout the period. Large volumes of onshore wind power will be connected to the Nordic grid the coming year and a large volume of new renewable production is available at a low cost.  
  • The investment costs for solar power in Europe are falling at a higher pace than ever expected. How will increasing investments in solar power in Europe affect the long-term power prices in the Nordic system?
  • The potential for onshore wind and solar power in the Nordic region is vast and investments are now very profitable that further growth is limited only by the framework. We discuss the arising challenges regarding land usage, alternative technologies and solutions.
  • Replacing flexible fossil power production with intermittent renewable power introduces challenges to balancing of the system. A large scale deployment of energy storage will accommodate for the reduced flexibility of production and enable the extensive development of renewable power production in Europe. We discuss the different technologies and solutions.
  • Hydrogen has gained more political attention in Europe and is deemed to play an important role in the future energy system, both as an energy carrier and as a substitution for fossil fuel. How will an emerging hydrogen market affect the Nordic power market? We assess the European policies, impacts and potentials on the Nordic power prices.
  • The renewables expansion continues on the Continent. However, previously foreseen developments have been influenced by renewed public resistance against certain technologies and locations. Overall, will renewables and emissions goals still be reached? Will alternative technologies become more dominant? And will new European wide interconnector capacities send more signals northbound and price structure and level change? We discuss the possible price formation, generation capacities, trends and solutions.
  • The coal to gas switch, plus politically determined thermal decommissioning plans and green subsidy schemes are perhaps enough to reach the current European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) emissions goals. However, the EU will likely tighten the emissions goals this fall, which will clearly impact the EU ETS target prices. We discuss the solutions and present our price expectation used as basis in this long term edition.
  • In addition to our base case scenario, we present high and low-price scenarios.

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.