Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook 2021

2020 Was Very Active – Let's Look Ahead to 2021

The 2020 Atlantic season ended with a record total of 30 named storms, 13 of which became hurricanes, with six of these hurricanes reaching major intensity. The Main Development Region east of the Caribbean remained fairly inactive in 2020, with development occurring more frequently in the northwest Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. This led to five hurricane landfalls on the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2020.

Generally, what happens in a previous season has little or no bearing on what will develop in the following season, as we saw after the record 2005 hurricane season which was followed by a relatively quiet 2006. However for 2021, initial indications are that the tropics will be just as favorable for development as they were last season. In this early outlook, we examine water temperature trends across the Atlantic and Pacific as well as long-range patterns that could help to identify where and how many storms may develop this season.

Only have time for a quick glance? Check out our Atlantic Hurricane Season Risk Map, which shows areas with above normal risk for impact and the predicted number of storms by intensity.