Spring 2021, 36th edition (2021 – 2045). Scenario-based analysis with updated price prognosis for all Nordic price areas and neighboring countries.
"There is no longer any doubt that there will be binding reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions, which will be largely eliminated in the Nordic countries and Europe by 2050." – Sigbjørn Seland, Chief Analyst
The long-term report offers 3 scenarios with an updated base case scenario and a high and low scenario. The analysis is available as pdf including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.
We include price forecasts for the Nordic and German System and all Nordic area prices up until 2045, plus price projections for France, UK, The Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia and Lithuania on annual resolution.
The Nordic Power Outlook also includes a detailed annual supply and demand balance for all price areas until 2045.
Nena Analysis is one of the few analyses we use on a weekly basis and is definitely highly important. We rate all these companies every year and pick the ones to continue with, and we've been with Nena for a long time. We're always shown very good analysis and very good insights.Nicholas Martin
Head of Sourcing Europe, Norsk Hydro
Myself, as an employee in Bane NOR, have had a two decade history as customers of Nena and that’s due to the need to have a necessary tool to make good decisions on a daily basis.Jonny Glærum
Key discussions for the Spring 2021 Nordic power market outlook
This will take place through massive development of wind and solar power that allows extensive electrification. For those parts of the economy that are difficult to electrify directly, hydrogen appears to be the most likely replacement for fossil fuels.
The report describes in detail the various cost elements for the power system until 2045 with a focus on the development of Long Run Marginal Costs in onshore and offshore wind power, solar power, battery storage, hydrogen production and hydrogen power plants.
We explain how electricity consumption will develop on the road to decarbonisation, how the power balance will look like with the various elements of low-carbon or carbon-free production and energy storage and what is the equilibrium price of electricity on the road to a decarbonised society.
The power system that is under development places demands on flexibility and we show how the duration curve for power prices is expected to develop. This includes the development in the cannibalisation factor for wind and solar power plants.
The Swedish government has prepared a proposal to reduce the connection costs for offshore wind power by commissioning the Swedish TSO to expand the main grid in Swedish maritime territory. This opens for a significant development of offshore wind, which has a major impact on this analysis, especially if the Swedish proposal is adopted by other countries.
The report derives the necessary CO2 price to achieve long-term reduction targets for greenhouse gases. Temperature and precipitation: The analysis considers expected changes in temperature and precipitation until 2045.
Nena Analysis builds fundamental models and methods with strong emphasis on a combination of economic theory, market models, weather impacts and marginal cost calculations.
Our analyses reveal coherence between numerous price drivers, enabling us to explain substitution pricing, and ultimately consequences for future pricing of various commodities.