Fall 2020 Nordic Power Market Outlook

Details and Specifications

Key discussions for the Fall 2020 edition

• In which parts of the Nordic system will there be significant consumption growth and how will energy efficiency improvements limit the growth?
• COVID-19 – How has the pandemic affected the Nordic power market, and will it have any long- term impacts?
• How will increasing investments in solar power in Europe affect long-term power prices in the Nordic system?
• Replacing flexible fossil power production with intermittent renewable power introduces challenges to balancing of the system.
• How will an emerging hydrogen market affect the Nordic power market?
• Will renewables and emissions goals still be reached?
• Will new European-wide interconnector capacities send more signals northbound as well as change price structure and level?
• The coal-to-gas switch, plus politically determined thermal decommissioning plans and green subsidy schemes, are perhaps enough to reach the current European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) emissions goals.
• In-depth information and specifications
• We’re witnessing substantial electricity consumption growth in the Nordic region. Electrification of traditional fossil-based industries and sectors, together with extensive growth in new el intensive industries increases demand for electricity. In which parts of the Nordic system will there be significant consumption growth and how will energy efficiency improvements limit the growth? We discuss electricity consumption development in the Nordics and provide detailed balances for all price areas.
• We discuss the continuous investment signal for new renewable power throughout the period. Large volumes of onshore wind power will be connected to the Nordic grid in the coming year and a lot of new renewable production is available at low cost.
• The investment costs for solar power in Europe are falling more sharplythan ever expected. How will increasing investments in solar power in Europe affect the long-term power prices in the Nordic system?
• The potential for onshore wind and solar power in the Nordic region is vast and investments are very profitable now that further growth is limited only by the framework. We discuss the arising challenges regarding land usage, alternative technologies and solutions.
• Replacing flexible fossil power production with intermittent renewable power introduces challenges to balancing of the system. A large-scale deployment of energy storage will accommodate for the reduced flexibility of production and enable the extensive development of renewable power production in Europe. We discuss the different technologies and solutions.
• Hydrogen has gained more political attention in Europe and is deemed to play an important role in the future energy system, both as an energy carrier and as a substitution for fossil fuel. How will an emerging hydrogen market affect the Nordic power market? We assess the European policies, impacts and potentials on the Nordic power prices.
• The renewables expansion continues on the European continent. However, previously foreseen developments have been influenced by renewed public resistance against certain technologies and locations. Overall, will renewables and emissions goals still be reached? Will alternative technologies become more dominant? And will new European-wide interconnector capacities send more signals northbound and change price structure and level? We discuss possible price formation, generation capacities, trends and solutions.
• The coal-to-gas switch, plus politically determined thermal decommissioning plans and green subsidy schemes, are perhaps enough to reach the current European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) emissions goals. However, the EU will likely tighten the emissions goals this fall, which will clearly impact the EU ETS target prices. We discuss the solutions and present our price expectation used as a basis in this long-term edition.
• In addition to our base case scenario, we present high and low-price scenarios.
• The analysis is available as a pdf or paper version, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

Available now.