Fall 2023, 41st edition (2023 - 2050). Scenario-based analysis with updated price prognosis for all Nordic price areas and neighboring countries.
Fall 2023, 28th edition (2023 – 2050). Renewable cost development, potential, and expected investments in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Baltics until 2050.
The Nordic Renewables Outlook contains 75 pages of:
RELEASE DATE: OCTOBER 19, 2023
Renewable cost development, potential, and expected investments in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark, and Baltics until 2050. The analysis is available in pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.
The report discusses relevant energy storage technologies to enable the extensive development of renewable energy.
The report includes various framework conditions in the Nordic region – addressing the long-term targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the EU. Analysis of the EU ETS with a possible emissions scenario all the way to 2050 and a detailed analysis of the Electricity Certificates market.
Rising costs for wind and solar power lead to lower investments. New nuclear power in the Nordics appears relatively more cost-effective. Are we facing a new growth phase for nuclear power in the Nordics?Sigbjørn Seland
Chief Analyst at StormGeo Nena
With access to high-quality analyses of future energy prices, we can confidently advise our clients on good investment decisions for energy solutions in our building projects.Dib Abdul-Hadi
Key discussions for the autumn 2023 edition of our Nordic Renewables Outlook include:
We conduct an in-depth evaluation of technology advancements and estimate current and future costs associated with wind and solar power, nuclear power, energy storage solutions, and hydrogen technologies. Our analysis encompasses Long Run Marginal Costs (LRMC) development for over 30 technologies across four distinct scenarios spanning from 2023 to 2050. Additionally, we provide LRMC indices for other European regions with differing natural conditions.
Our report delves into the potential and anticipated investments in the Nordic region, extending through 2050. We assess the outlook for hydropower, wind power, solar photovoltaics (PV), Bio Combined Heat and Power (CHP), nuclear power, energy storage technologies, and hydrogen. While the fundamental drivers for renewable energy remain robust, profitability has become increasingly challenging. Many wind and solar power projects face delays or cancellations due to local resistance. Consequently, expected green investments have been adjusted downward compared to previous analyses. Additionally, we scrutinize the prospects for a potential growth phase in nuclear power, even within the Nordic region, with a focus on profitability.
We explore the pivotal role that emission reduction targets play in shaping investments within the European energy system. Our report includes a comprehensive review of the European Union's climate and energy policies, as well as relevant regulations. This encompasses an examination of the proposed EU taxonomy, which has a significant impact on the classification of sustainable investments.
While governmental support is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a central pillar. We provide insights into the EUA (European Union Allowance) market and present a EUA price projection that aligns with the long-term objective of achieving net-zero emissions.
We conduct a thorough assessment of current renewable energy policies in the Nordic region. Additionally, we analyze the likelihood of new political initiatives emerging that will shape the renewable energy landscape leading up to 2050.
Nena Analysis builds fundamental models and methods with strong emphasis on a combination of economic theory, market models, weather impacts and marginal cost calculations.
Our analyses reveal coherence between numerous price drivers, enabling us to explain substitution pricing, and ultimately consequences for future pricing of various commodities.